Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.115367 2.241898 2.375202 2.526647 2.694598 2.875924 3.087539
2025-07-20 1.956691 2.135166 2.332659 2.569428 2.848332 3.170014 3.574527
2025-07-27 1.859126 2.069937 2.311386 2.612382 2.983468 3.434366 4.037609
2025-08-03 1.756885 1.984790 2.252485 2.596144 3.035029 3.591032 4.374393
2025-08-10 1.673215 1.912820 2.200159 2.578239 3.075934 3.730131 4.696605
2025-08-17 1.597858 1.844612 2.145667 2.550128 3.096631 3.838782 4.983709
2025-08-24 1.531946 1.783430 2.094865 2.520984 3.110332 3.934837 5.259710
2025-08-31 1.486721 1.745222 2.070135 2.522970 3.164438 4.090310 5.645071
2025-09-07 1.451632 1.717644 2.056818 2.538119 3.236313 4.276505 6.105813
2025-09-14 1.399843 1.665764 2.008307 2.500760 3.227697 4.336689 6.357590
2025-09-21 1.351543 1.616329 1.960512 2.461111 3.211808 4.382237 6.587640
2025-09-28 1.304225 1.566328 1.909652 2.413990 3.180658 4.398994 6.764496
2025-10-05 1.286637 1.555836 1.912907 2.446115 3.275308 4.636421 7.421461
2025-10-12 1.272604 1.549411 1.921216 2.485733 3.384411 4.910857 8.218878
2025-10-19 1.259822 1.543948 1.930248 2.526384 3.497742 5.206024 9.140718
2025-10-26 1.230529 1.514546 1.903796 2.511011 3.516050 5.326323 9.681028
2025-11-02 1.202573 1.486021 1.877376 2.494057 3.529960 5.439039 10.232612
2025-11-09 1.173398 1.454849 1.845897 2.467430 3.524887 5.513186 10.702418
2025-11-16 1.145527 1.424683 1.814797 2.439814 3.515956 5.578210 11.166631
2025-11-23 1.127436 1.407805 1.802574 2.441696 3.559598 5.757200 12.030413
2025-11-30 1.113692 1.396647 1.798315 2.456052 3.626658 5.994674 13.177512
2025-12-07 1.087303 1.366603 1.764761 2.420644 3.598694 6.018582 13.609675
2025-12-14 1.061497 1.336794 1.730714 2.383046 3.564322 6.024548 13.984674